History repeating »
Sunday, September 30th, 2007
Could it be that Apple is making a huge mistake, one that will marginalize them to a niche of a market they defined, again?
The iPhone is something fundamentally new and I think everyone who has tried one knows this. Though it is primarily a phone, its real breakthrough is that it has finally answered the question of how to do the mobile computer device.
Like the Macintosh answered the question of how to do the PC, the iPhone does this for the mobile. There have been PCs before the Mac, but when the Mac appeared in 1984, in the long run, they were history.
In the future every mobile computer device will be like the iPhone. The handsets of today remind me a lot of the DOS-based PCs of 1984. Yes, it took its time, but today every PC is like a Mac. The irony is that Apple made some fundamental mistakes, and most of these PCs now run something called Windows, which is undoubtly much more a Mac than a DOS-based PC.
It makes me want to pull out my hair, but more and more it looks like Apple is repeating history in more than one aspect: If they continue on the path they are on today, they will not be the provider of the mobile of the future, because they make two fundamental mistakes:
Locking customers into one operator does not make people happy. At the time they do not have much choice, but beware if they have! If I could buy a more-or-less iPhone from (lets say) Nokia that runs on my chosen operator, I would.
Locking out 3rd party applications does not make people happy, too. At the time they do not have much choice, but beware if they have! If I could twitter, chat, read an e-book, play a game, etc. on a more-or-less iPhone from (lets say) Microsoft, I would.
I have read a lot of articles dismissing these two arguments with the fact that the iPhone is so revolutionary, this does not matter to not make it a huge success. I agree for the moment, but not in the long run. The only reason why the iPhone sells so well is because the competition is still at the MS-DOS equivalent of the mobile. If Apple thinks they will forever keep this lead they are nuts!
It is especially crazy, since building a big pool of 3rd party software now would create a huge advantage over any future competitor. Plus, Apple could make a lot of money out of it too, by selling the software over iTunes (like I said in the previous article I think this provides value for both customer and software developer).
Apple listen: First, you need an iPhone SDK, now! If you are worried about something like Skype, make it clear you will not distribute this over iTunes. Which would be the only way to install 3rd party software. Second, stop your exclusive operator strategy, ASAP! I know there are contracts, that’s why there is ASAP instead of now! This does you more harm than good. I will not buy an iPhone because I will never ever go back to T-Mobile. Never. (I live in Austria)
In essence: Do not lock customers!

